Delafield, Wis. — July 30, 2026 — A new statewide poll commissioned by the Institute for Reforming Government (IRG) finds a Wisconsin governor’s race that is far less settled than topline approval numbers suggest. Democratic officeholders remain net-positive on job approval and Republicans are underwater — but Republicans hold a clear advantage on the issue voters say matters most, and independents, who will decide the race, are not locked in.
IRG commissioned the survey of 800 Wisconsin registered voters, fielded by RMG Research for the Napolitan News Service on July 20-24, 2026 (margin of sampling error ±3.5 points).
Why it matters: The environment nominally favors Democrats, but it’s softer than it looks. Once real candidates and real issues enter the picture, the Democratic advantage doesn’t fully translate — and the numbers show Republicans a clear opening on affordability and fiscal restraint.
The Quote:
“Wisconsin voters are not where the political conventional wisdom says they are,” said Chris Reader, Chief Operating Officer of the Institute for Reforming Government. “They’re anxious about the cost of living, they overwhelmingly prefer free-market solutions to government ones, and they want spending restrained — across party lines. Independents — the voters who will actually decide this race, have not yet engaged in large numbers. This race will be won or lost on affordability and is still up for grabs.”
By the numbers:
- 82% of voters call inflation and the cost of living “very important” from the provided issues, and 38% name it their single most important issue — more than double the next-highest answer.
- 26% gave an answer related to government integrity when asked to state their most important issue, 23% gave an answer related to the economy.
- +48 net favorable: “Free market economy” has a net +48 favorability, outperforming every party and ideology brand tested, left or right.
- 73-19: Voters back eliminating the personal income tax by 2030 by a landslide margin that holds across party lines — 85-8 among Republicans, 65-24 among independents, and 64-28 among Democrats.
- 66%: of voters, including half of Democrats, want 2027 state spending held flat or reduced; just 3% want another double-digit increase.
Zoom in — the governor’s race:
- Independents lean Tiffany: Pure independents — the least partisan-anchored voters — favor Tiffany against all three leading Democrats, but they’re also the least enthusiastic bloc in the race: just 41% say they’re enthusiastic to vote, and only 23% “very” enthusiastic, versus roughly 85-89% for each party’s own base.
- Tiffany down, but outrunning the generic ballot: The generic ballot sits at D+6 (45% Republican-51% Democrat), barely moved since April. Tiffany runs ahead of that number in every individual matchup tested — despite his own –6 personal favorability rating: Tiffany trails Hong 43-44%, trails Crowley 43-46%, and trails Barnes 42-47%.
- The DSA tax: A Democratic Socialists of America affiliation costs a candidate a net 18 points statewide — and that penalty nearly triples among independents, to –52.5.
- Hong’s coalition is softer: Lean Democrats back Crowley and Barnes at 83-86%, but only 67% back Hong, with 18% saying “someone else” and 13% unsure.
- Major liabilities: Positions to dismantle ICE (41 for – 46% against), cut prison population in half (30-49), defund as a first step to abolishing police 12-78), vote not to certify the 2020 election (12-78), and saying America deserved the 9/11 attacks (4-91) are all net losers with voters.
The bottom line:
Wisconsin voters remain anchored to affordability, fiscal restraint, and free-market economic policy across party lines. Independents — not persuaded, not enthusiastic — remain the race’s biggest variable.
