While Wisconsin will need less new housing than previously projected to maintain the status quo, a new Forward Analytics report argues the state should set its sights higher than “building for a low-end estimate.”
The research arm of the Wisconsin Counties Association yesterday released “Not Enough: Wisconsin’s Housing Outlook.”
The report shows the state will need around 84,000 new housing units by 2030 to match its working-age population trend. That’s a substantial decline from earlier estimates, which put the number around 140,000 in 2023 based on less dramatic forecasts of Wisconsin’s working-age population decline.
But yesterday’s report says building just enough housing for a declining workforce “is not positioning itself to grow, attract talent, or remain economically competitive” through the next decade and even further.
While building 84,000 new units by 2030 is the minimum needed to match slowing workforce growth, authors say setting a high-end goal of 228,000 units would “allow for the full reversal of working-age population loss” through in-migration. It would also help address demand among younger would-be buyers who’ve been unable to purchase housing.
“This is the level of ambition Wisconsin’s housing policy should reflect,” authors wrote.
The group’s call to action comes as Wisconsin’s working-age population is now projected to fall by 6.6% or nearly 200,000 people between 2020 and 2030, a larger drop than previously expected. The majority of that decline will be among those aged 55-64, the report shows.
Despite the demographic challenge ahead, permitting trends show some promise for meeting housing targets, according to the report. From 2020-2025, the state issued 138,424 permits for housing units, “far outpacing” the low-end estimate of about 84,000 units by 2023.
“If the state maintains this average permit issuance through 2030, even the highest-level estimate is within reach,” authors wrote.
But other factors are also constraining housing growth, as lot creation acts as a bottleneck for further development. From 2020-2025, the state had an average of 5,600 lots created per year, up from 4,600 per year over the prior five years.
But authors note that’s far below the pre-Great Recession era when that figure exceeded 14,000 per year on average, even as the latest figure reached its highest level since 2007 just last year.
And while Wisconsin is generally keeping up with housing demand, authors say, they argue doing that alone “is not the same” as making progress.
“The next few years of lot creation and permit data will signal which path Wisconsin is on … Permitting has increased in recent years as well, but these incremental increases may not be enough to make up for years of lower construction and underdevelopment,” authors wrote.
