MADISON, Wis. – A report released by Forward Analytics finds that Wisconsin needs to build fewer homes than expected due to changing demographic patterns, a decline from 2023 estimates.
The study updates the previously assumed 140,000 projected units to be built from 2020 to 2030, revising the estimate to around 84,000 units based on updated Department of Administration (DOA) population projections. Unit permits in Wisconsin are keeping pace. Since 2020, Wisconsin has issued 74,692 single-unit permits, averaging about 12,449 per year. This has already met the predictions for the status quo. But constructing only enough housing to meet a shrinking workforce does not position Wisconsin to grow, attract talent, or remain economically competitive over the next decade and beyond.
The study cites the shifting population dynamics as the reason behind the revision. The growing senior population, expected to increase by nearly 283,000 through 2030, has significant implications for housing supply, given this group’s high homeownership rate. This also corresponds with the overall decline in the working-age population, which is estimated to drop 6.6 percent over the 10 years – the single most significant demographic shift of the decade.
The next few years of lot creation and permit issuance will signal which path Wisconsin is taking. To stay competitive, Wisconsin must aim to build 228,000 units, at the high end. This will offset the loss of the full working-age population, ease pent-up demand among younger adults who have been priced out of the market, and attract new residents. Lot creation ticked upward in 2025 to its highest level since 2007, which is encouraging, but it is still far short of pre-Great Recession levels. Permitting has increased in recent years as well, but these incremental increases may not be enough to offset years of lower construction and underdevelopment.
“Wisconsin’s demographics are shifting rapidly, and our housing policy needs to keep pace,” said Jacob Anderson, research analyst at Forward Analytics. “If Wisconsin wants to retain and attract residents, it cannot accept the status quo and must increase permitting supply to give itself the chance to retain younger residents who are being priced out of the market, as well as attract new residents.”
The Forward Analytics report makes clear that Wisconsin’s lower housing estimate is not a sign of increased affordability or increased construction activity. Instead, it highlights the declining population as the defining factor behind the lower estimates and suggests that Wisconsin must do more to retain and attract citizens by increasing housing supply.
