In the latest edition of “Talking Trade,” Monex USA Chief Economist John Min shares insights on the U.S. economy as well as global trends.
Monex USA is an international payment services business specializing in foreign currency.
“For the last two years, many of my colleagues and fellow industry experts and market watchers, we’ve been expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession … I also expected a recession last year,” he said, but noted newly adjusted models predict “another solid year” domestically in 2025.
He noted the United States has “defied” economists’ predictions as productivity has grown more quickly than expected.
“There’s a surge in productivity, at the same time there has been a surge in U.S. population,” he said.
The podcast explores the impacts of tariffs on the world stage, with Min noting the direct cost of tariffs typically hits U.S. consumers. He said Federal Reserve board members are expressing worry about expected tariffs under the incoming Trump Administration, pointing to greater inflationary pressures in the near future.
“Right now, they are getting close to 2%, that is our explicit goal by the Federal Reserve,” he said. “But it has been tough, that last mile from 3% to 2%, that’s going to be tough and with the tariff coming on board, and possible deportations, the Fed may be forced to keep the interest rate higher for longer.”
Still, he notes that trend would be good for the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.
“So there’s a huge demand for the dollar, and that’s why the dollar has been very, very strong this year and last year, the year before,” he said. “And again, from Monex, our research department, we expect the dollar to continue to be very strong.”
Min will be a featured speaker Tuesday at a 2025 Economic Forecast event hosted by the Madison International Trade Association. See details and register here.
Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.
