A global studies expert at Carroll University warns “we may be having our lunch eaten by China” in the global vehicle export market amid changes driven by the Trump administration’s tariffs.
Lilly Goren, a professor of political science at the private university, joined other trade experts this week for a live “Talking Trade” podcast discussion in Waukesha.
The discussion explored shifting trade relationships between various nations as the world grapples with the impacts of U.S. trade policy, as well as how exporters and other businesses are dealing with the new reality.
“The state of Wisconsin used to sell China all of our ginseng, and now we don’t, and the ginseng farmers have essentially been bailed out,” Goren said, adding “the strange bedfellows that are arriving out of this tariff regime the United States has implemented, is that the post-World War II and to some degree also post-Cold War alliances are completely scrambled.”
She and other panelists noted China has been making deals with other trade partners amid heightened trade tensions with the U.S., expanding exports to European markets for one example.
M.E. Dey CEO Sandi Siegel, who co-hosts the “Talking Trade” podcast, noted it’s not only China that’s looking for other partners in the wake of the U.S. tariff framework.
“So are some of our other key NATO allies that are now not as pleased, based on how we’ve treated them,” she said. “So they’re also softening on talking with China, obviously.”
At the same time, Goren said China is producing the majority of high-quality electric vehicles being sold around the world, jeopardizing the U.S. position as a top vehicle maker and exporter.
Farmers in particular have been impacted by changes in trade with China, according to Prof. Alexandra Sielaff, director of Carroll University’s MBA program.
“It’s our farmers here that are suffering because China retaliated against them … China’s, certainly, retaliation has impacted our farmers’ ability to sell,” she said.
And though the Trump administration’s stated goal of reducing the trade deficit was accomplished in part with China, much of that trade has simply moved to other Asian countries. That’s according to E.M. Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik, the podcast’s other co-host.
“The trade deficit did reduce over last year from China, but it exploded when you look at Vietnam and other countries … like the Philippines, Taiwan,” he said. “Because what businesses did is just shift production, or their suppliers.”
During the president’s first term, many Chinese companies owned by Taiwanese investors began building their plants outside of China in anticipation of developments like this, Wasylik said, noting that foresight has proven to be correct.
“So you’re seeing the trade deficit with Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia even and Vietnam specifically have really increased,” he said. “So the total trade deficit has been reduced, but not anywhere near what the administration thought it should be.”
