WED AM News: BMO report explores WI business outlook in constrained growth environment; Senate approves online gaming bill with half of GOP caucus opposed

March 18, 2026

— Businesses in Wisconsin are “prioritizing efficiency and productivity” over hiring amid a tight labor market and tepid state-level economic growth.

That’s according to a new state business outlook report released today by BMO Bank, featuring insights from Dave Anderson, head of Wisconsin and Minnesota commercial banking for the Chicago-based bank.

He wrote businesses in the state began this year “from a position of resilience” rather than acceleration, despite a relatively strong performance last year. Anderson pointed to uncertainty around monetary policy, geopolitics and domestic politics as overarching factors, adding companies are prioritizing long-term execution under these conditions.

“At the same time, businesses are operating within a structurally constrained growth environment, shaped by long‑running labor shortages and slower relative economic expansion compared with the national average,” he wrote.

Wisconsin’s real GDP grew by 1.5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, below the national rate of 2.3%, BMO Deputy Chief Economist Michael Gregory wrote in the outlook report. That ranks 39th among U.S. states, he noted, adding “underperformance is a perennial problem” for Wisconsin.

The state’s unemployment was 3.1% at the end of 2025, near a record low for Wisconsin and matching the sixth-lowest rate in the country, according to Gregory. At the same time, Wisconsin has one of the oldest labor forces in the country, driving down both the participation rate and the unemployment rate.

“Aside from the state’s above-average exposure to more cyclical industries such as manufacturing and agriculture, which can beget temporary bouts of underperformance, the dominant drag on Wisconsin’s relative economic performance is its chronically constrained labor supply,” he wrote.

Anderson notes the state’s tight labor market is driven by these demographic pressures and low participation rates, rather than strong hiring demand. To succeed in this environment, businesses are working on process improvement and technology adoption, doing “more with less” to optimize the existing workforce, he wrote.

As a result, business investments in automation and digital tools are on the rise to “extend capacity” and support sustainable growth even while facing hiring challenges.

Meanwhile, manufacturing and construction “continue to anchor” the state economy while grappling with the labor challenge, tariffs and “margin pressure,” Anderson wrote.

“While backlogs provide some near‑term visibility, employment growth has been uneven, reinforcing the need for disciplined capital planning and productivity‑focused investment rather than broad expansion,” he wrote.

Gregory drew a connection between labor force challenges in Wisconsin and eroding housing affordability, noting the volume of home sales fell 2.1% over the year for the three-month period ending in January while the median sale price rose 4.3% over the same period.

“The erosion of affordability is also problematic for a state attempting to attract workers,” he wrote.

Still, Anderson said “there is a broad recognition” that the domestic economy is fundamentally sound and success will result from “staying disciplined, investing strategically, and growing primarily through efficiency and scale” rather than adding jobs.

See the full report.

— The state Senate has voted to open the door to allowing online gaming in Wisconsin as the issue split both Republican and Democratic caucuses over concerns the move would worsen gambling issues.

The Senate yesterday approved the bill 21-12 with nine Republicans — half of the caucus — and three Dems opposed. It now goes to Dem Gov. Tony Evers. If he signs the bill, Evers would then be allowed to negotiate new compacts with Wisconsin’s Native American tribes, who would be the only ones in the state that could offer online gaming.

Sen. Chris Larson, D-Milwaukee, told the Senate he met his wife at a dog track, joking, “She took a big bet.” He argued placing the option to bet in someone’s pocket through their smartphone would exacerbate negative behaviors.

“Until we have in place some protections to make sure that people are not falling down black holes of despair placing one bet in front of the other, I do think it is time to pause,” Larson said.

Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, D-Middleton, urged support of the legislation, which has been a priority this session for several tribes. She said passage would allow the governor to reopen gaming compacts with tribes, allowing the safeguards that Larson sought to be added.

“There is a give and take in that process,” she said.

Under AB 601, the servers offering online gaming would have to be located on tribal lands. A coalition of online gaming companies lobbied against the bill, which was backed by several tribes, as well as the Milwaukee Brewers and the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce.

The GOP split over the bill generated significant interest heading into yesterday’s vote.

Meanwhile, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos called the state Senate not taking up a GOP-authored bill regulating data centers “absolutely sad” and warned it could cost Republicans in the fall.

“The state Senate should vote on that bill. Especially if they want to get back into the majority,” Vos said yesterday, adding that “people who don’t have that vote are going to regret it in October.”

A couple of Assembly Democrats crossed party lines to vote for AB 840, which orders the Public Service Commission to insulate ratepayers from new utility costs associated with data center development, limits developments of renewable energy developments serving the facilities and includes provisions to keep data center sites from becoming brownfields.

Co-author Sen. Romaine Quinn, R-Birchwood, said two GOP senators blocked bringing the bill to the Senate floor.

See more Senate action in the WisPolitics Quorum Call page.

— OneMain Financial is slamming a lawsuit from Wisconsin and other states as “meritless,” arguing the accusations from Attorney General Josh Kaul and other state AGs are untrue.

The state Department of Justice this week announced the lawsuit against the lending company, owned by Indiana-based OneMain Holdings. Along with a dozen other states, the Wisconsin DOJ alleges the company has misled its customers with deceptive loan processes and hidden add-on services.

In a statement on the lawsuit, the company argued the claims are “wrong on the facts and wrong on the law,” and aim to “relitigate” issues that were previously reviewed and resolved by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“We operate honestly and transparently, in full compliance with all laws and regulations, as we provide responsible and much needed access to credit for hardworking Americans,” the statement reads. “This matter does not change how we operate our business or serve our customers. We will litigate this case vigorously and look forward to proving the truth in court.”

See the full statement.

— This year’s Talent Development Conference is being held April 21-22 in Green Bay, featuring insights from consultants, executives, representatives of state agencies and others.

The annual conference, organized by the Wisconsin Workforce Development Association, will open with a keynote address from Ron Dunford, president and CEO of Green Bay’s Schreiber Foods. His speech will be followed by various breakout sessions, then remarks by Scott Hodek, section chief of the Department of Workforce Development’s Office of Economic Advisors.

Hodek will be featured at another upcoming event, the 2026 Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon, being held April 29 in Madison by WisPolitics + State Affairs, WisBusiness and the Wisconsin Bankers Association.

Day two of the TDCON event will feature a keynote on ChatGPT by Emily Laird, AI integration technologist at UW-Stout, and more sessions focused on management, crisis communications and other topics.

See more event details and register here.

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