TUE AM News: Economist says GDP a poor indicator of U.S. trajectory amid tariff uncertainty; Tech Council names Maggie Brickerman as next president

August 12, 2025

— An economist with UW-Madison says GDP growth is a poor indicator of the economy’s current trajectory, as other factors suggest a national slowdown amid tariffs and related uncertainty.

Menzie Chinn, a professor in the university’s La Follette School of Public Affairs, discussed this topic during the latest Wisconsin Alumni Foundation UW Now livestream. His recent remarks came after federal figures were released showing national GDP grew 3% in the second quarter of this year, following a decline of 0.5% in the first quarter.

While he said this figure may look like a great recovery, it remains below where it would be if the national economy kept up with the 2023-2024 projected trend.

“So GDP jumped up, but you can see what’s going on is, GDP is being whipsawed all around by people changing their behavior in response to these unprecedented tariffs,” Chinn said, adding “now traffic into the ports is decreasing as we’re cutting back, as the price of imports has risen.”

He referenced other economic factors that point to a possible slowdown, including a recent decline in personal income following more than two years of growth. An employment survey that taps households rather than employers also found a recent decline. Plus, national nonfarm employment growth was recently revised downward, undercutting earlier conclusions about the strength of the economy.

“It’s the previous months that were revised downwards, so that in some you had like a quarter million jobs creation erased, and so what we thought was a fairly strong economy is now looking a little lackluster if not struggling,” he said.

By contrast, industrial production is “the only thing that’s really solidly going up” in early 2025, Chinn said, but he added this only represents about 17% of the economy.

Ultimately, a growing body of evidence shows the economy is slowing — the question is, he said, will that continue and tip the economy into a recession, or not?

“That’s why, in part, this issue about the tariffs is so critical at this time … if you get hit by tariffs, that’s going to tend to make everything more expensive, it’s also going to tend to make it harder for us to export,” he said. “And so you can see, a bunch of things that could push the economy from what’s still growing in some components, in some areas, into something that’s going into a tailspin.”

Also during the livestream, UW-Madison Assistant Prof. Lydia Cox pointed to figures showing U.S. import prices haven’t fallen since tariffs were imposed earlier this year. That’s based on records of import prices excluding tariffs.

“What that tells us is that it’s not the foreign countries that are paying for these tariffs, but somebody in the U.S. is paying those costs,” she said.

Cox also noted both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — which measures the prices firms pay — have been rising in recent months. That shows U.S. businesses are already seeing price increases and are starting to pass those higher costs onto consumers, she explained.

“In the most recent month of data, what we saw is that things like appliances and apparel, those are some of the categories where prices are increasing the most,” she said. “And these are of course goods that we import a lot from China … this is all kind of confirming what we expected to see, the tariffs putting pressure on prices is starting to materialize.”

After the latest monthly jobs report was weaker than expected, President Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, arguing the numbers were “rigged.” But Chinn said multiple investigations have found the BLS figures are trustworthy, adding the agency should hire more workers in order to deliver better estimates.

While he said federal budget cuts as well as the trend of fewer people answering their phones have likely made it harder to get accurate employment estimates, “nobody who’s credible believes that the numbers are rigged.”

Chinn also said “so many economists are worried” given the record-high levels of uncertainty about federal policymaking.

“In terms of policy uncertainty, it’s as high as during the pandemic,” he said. “In terms of trade uncertainty, it’s higher than anything that’s been recorded that we know. So to the extent that tariffs and uncertainty are weighing down on growth, that’s going to mean that the future is incredibly misty.”

Watch the video.

— The Wisconsin Technology Council has named Maggie Brickerman as its next president, as current leader Tom Still plans to retire Oct. 3.

The Tech Council yesterday announced its selection of Brickerman, a founding leader of startup incubator gener8tor. Along with guiding gener8tor’s strategic vision, she helped grow programs supporting more than 500 businesses that have collectively raised nearly $1.5 billion in follow-on investment.

In a statement on the new leadership role, Brickerman said she’s “honored to build on Tom’s legacy.” He helmed the Tech Council for more than 23 years, leading efforts to lobby the Capitol on tech industry priorities, support early-stage startup growth and bring together members of the state’s entrepreneurial ecosystem.

“This is a pivotal moment for Wisconsin’s tech economy, and I look forward to bringing together innovators, investors and policymakers to ensure our high-tech sector is reaching its full potential in creating wealth and jobs for all Wisconsinites,” Brickerman said.

Gary Frings, board chair of the Tech Council, says Brickerman is the right person to lead the Tech Council following two decades of Still’s “steady leadership.”

“Her deep knowledge of Wisconsin’s tech ecosystem, combined with her proven leadership skills and experience in building innovation networks, will be instrumental in driving the Council’s 2.0 phase,” Frings said.

See the release.

— Port Milwaukee Director Jackie Carter is stepping down from the role and calling for applicants to fill the position.

In a recent LinkedIn post, Carter said she’s been asked to take another assignment.

The city has posted the job opening online for the municipal port director position, which is part of the mayor’s cabinet. The director is appointed by the mayor but must also be confirmed by the Common Council.

The job’s current salary range goes up to about $197,000 with a slight increase for a resident incentive, the posting shows.

See Carter’s post and listen to an earlier podcast with Carter.

— The state Department of Safety and Professional Services has published an updated fee schedule for license applications and renewals.

The agency’s announcement yesterday said trades licenses won’t change and the cost of most business and health licenses will also stay the same.

Most professions seeing a higher cost, including nurses and dentists, will see costs rise less than $20 for a two-year renewal, the release shows. Only doctors will see a greater increase, with their fee increasing to $120 every two years. DSPS says that’s the lowest renewal rate in the country for doctors.

“Most licenses will not experience a fee change and all license fees remain lower than they were in 2018,” DSPS Secretary Dan Hereth said in a statement.

— Dr. Jonathan Temte, the former chairman of the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee and a UW-Madison professor, says he anticipates more measles cases in Wisconsin.

“If I was going to make a bet, I would say that there’s a good likelihood because there’s such a large amount of cases across the United States,” Temte told “UpFront,” which is produced in partnership with WisPolitics. “I think any time we have cases be identified in communities with low vaccinations, then you really have to turn on the public health system.”

The state’s first measles cases of the year were identified in Oconto County, state health officials announced Aug. 4.

Temte was part of the group that declared measles eliminated in the United States in 2000.

“We recertified this back in 2012,” Temte said. “But in 2012, we made the point that one of the biggest threats was the declining use of vaccines. And I’m afraid that this year we may very well lose that elimination status, meaning that we now have measles circulating throughout our population.”

Wisconsin has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, about 86% statewide, according to the state health department. State data shows just 56% of kindergarten students in Milwaukee Public Schools had the required vaccines last school year.

“I don’t blame people for loss of faith, but there is a lot of misinformation, and it’s incredibly difficult for anyone to have up-to-date, credible information,” Temte said. “That’s why I always tell people to have conversations with your health care provider or your doctor or nurse practitioner or your physician assistant, somebody you trust who is up-to-date with that information.”

See more from the show and see coverage on the measles announcement.

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