THU AM News: AI expert says large language model development nearing plateau; Autism services group rebrands as Autism United of Wisconsin, splits from national Autism Society of America

February 6, 2025

— An AI specialist with the Milwaukee School of Engineering predicts models like ChatGPT will soon hit a plateau, meaning a lot less short-term impact on jobs and society than the hype suggests.

Jeremy Kedziora, endowed chair of artificial intelligence at MSOE, this week addressed members of the Milwaukee Rotary Club. He explained the “deep learning revolution” that kicked off around 2012 is now running into constraints, which have implications for the future of AI development.

The factors that have driven the explosive growth of AI — particularly large language models, or LLMs — include greater computing power for less money, advances in the underlying mathematics and the internet putting out massive amounts of human-generated information.

But while the internet itself is growing exponentially in size, Kedziora noted it’s “not necessarily growing at a great rate” when it comes to new, valuable information. He displayed a graph showing that very soon, models such as OpenAI will have essentially caught up with the growth rate of the internet and won’t have enough new information to sustain their rapid evolution.

“The internet is growing, it’s getting big. However, that doesn’t mean we’re getting a lot of new information,” he said. “What is the informational content of the ten billionth cat picture, right? Probably a lot less than the first. So there’s just less and less available for these models to Hoover up and use.”

As a result, he expects a “super intelligence” form of AI called artificial general intelligence isn’t likely to emerge in the near future. That means AI scientists will need to leverage the already maximized models better to do end-to-end tasks, giving them the ability to plan, set “subtasks” to support overarching goals and “maybe even access actual levers to pull to affect things in the real world,” Kedziora said.

This form of AI, which he called an “agentic” system, could automate complex, time-consuming endeavors such as scientific research, according to Kedziora.

In late 2024, a team of researchers created an AI model based on LLMs that can come up with ideas on its own, review literature, gather data, generate experiments, write the code to run them and write up a study for a peer-reviewed journal. What’s more, the cost of running this entire process is just $15.

“So if you can automate science, and discover new things with AI, what can’t you do?” he said.

Kedziora expects “you’re going to see a lot more attempts” this year to build AI systems like this that can handle complex workflows from start to finish. Still, he said concerns being raised about the technology’s impact on the workforce are largely overblown, as AI is expected to affect jobs related to about 5% of the economy over the next decade.

“We might be heading for pretty modest AI-related impacts, despite the hype,” he said.

Watch the video.

— The Autism Society of Southeastern Wisconsin has split from the Autism Society of America and rebranded as Autism United of Wisconsin, reflecting the nonprofit’s new goal of expanding statewide.

The group yesterday announced the change. Executive Director Rechelle Chaffee says its mission “remains as it always has been the past 50 years” that it’s served and supported Wisconsinites with neurological differences. It has historically covered Milwaukee and Waukesha counties, serving about 40% of the state’s population.

“The change, although it’s a change, is going to long-term be positive,” she said yesterday in an interview. “It’s also going to let us roll out some of the programs we’ve been doing for years to a larger audience, and take some of these programs across the state … We’re now not limited to some invisible geographic border.”

The move comes after efforts by the now-AUW to negotiate with the national Autism Society of America to combine three affiliates of the ASA in Wisconsin, with others located in Madison and northeastern Wisconsin. According to Chaffee, the nonprofit’s leadership negotiated with the national group for more than 18 months, but “ultimately, those efforts were rejected.”

Chaffee notes the AUW isn’t the first “and probably not the last” ASA affiliate to resign its affiliation from the national group, as groups in New Jersey, Connecticut and Tennessee have all done so.

She explained the split was driven in part by “huge brand confusion,” and the negotiations with the ASA were meant to provide clarity for clients in Wisconsin and define the “rules of engagement” between affiliates.

“The reality is, we have stayed in our service area because we follow the rules, but those rules have not been consistent for everyone,” she said, adding other affiliate groups have been “copying what we are doing.”

She said the AUW didn’t want to leave the ASA, but said without clearly defined, uniform rules for affiliates, “we were really worried about having to cut services and supports” for families.

No programs or services are being cut due to the split, she noted, and AUW now plans to launch more services statewide. That includes a program called Encompass Autism, launching across Wisconsin in March, which aims to help families learn about the basics of autism and where they can find support.

The AUW has always been privately funded, Chaffee said, noting “we won’t have any financial ramifications” from leaving the national group.

“As a matter of fact, they’ve been soliciting our people for donations, which was another thing,” she said. “I actually had a call from a constituent who was very frustrated. She thought she’d made a donation to us, and she actually made it to the [ASA.] So the reality is, this split is going to help for donors to know that they’re giving locally … and that the money they give stays, and goes directly back into programs and services.”

The Autism Society of America still lists two affiliates in Wisconsin: Autism Society Greater Wisconsin, based in Menasha; and Autism Society South Central Wisconsin, based in Madison.

In a statement on the split, Autism Society of America President and CEO Christopher Banks noted the group “oversees and supports” a network of more than 70 affiliates.

“In order to protect the integrity and quality of the Autism Society brand and ensure that our mission, vision, and values are preserved, the Autism Society works to ensure our affiliates are compliant with our high standards,” he said.

He notes there was “significant investment in affiliate support” and efforts to resolve the disagreement before the national group’s board of directors voted to disaffiliate the Autism Society of Southeastern Wisconsin.

“The Autism Society strongly supports our outstanding affiliates of Autism Society South Central Wisconsin and the Autism Society Greater Wisconsin, as they continue to deliver high-quality support, resources and community programming throughout Wisconsin,” Banks said.

See the release.

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— Gov. Tony Evers has announced an $80 million budget package to back Wisconsin farmers, producers and processors.

The package to be introduced in the guv’s budget on Feb. 18 includes $30 million in state funding for an effort Evers created in 2021 using federal COVID-19 funds to help food banks keep shelves stocked. The emphasis was on acquiring inventory from local farmers and producers. Under that program, the Hunger Task Force and Feeding Wisconsin each were eligible for $15 million to purchase food with the option to invest some of the funds in storage, distribution and transportation costs.

The guv included a similar provision in his 2023-25 budget, but GOP lawmakers nixed it.

Some of the other initiatives include $15 million to relaunch a program that was created in 2009 to purchase easements that barred land from being developed for any purpose other than agricultural use.

Evers said farmers, producers and processors have been “the backbone of our state for generations.”

“Wisconsin’s agricultural industries are not only vital to our state’s economic success, they are part of our DNA as Wisconsinites and our culture and heritage,” Evers said. “We’re going to keep working to support this vital industry and the farm families who make it all possible.”

The co-chairs of the Joint Finance Committee didn’t immediately return requests for comment.

It is the second budget announcement from Evers this week coming on the heels of a $145 million plan to deal with PFAS contamination.

Other provisions in the package Evers announced include:

A $12.7 million increase for county conservation staff to address pollution and flooding and to administer the Farmland Preservation program. The proposed bump would up funding for the effort to $30.5 million.
$10 million for a program that helps fund soil and water conservation efforts, including at the county level as well as by private landowners.
Doubling to $400,000 funding for farmer mental health initiatives that include a crisis helpline, counselor vouchers and virtual counseling services.
$3.7 million to reimburse corn farmers up to 50% of the cost of purchasing seed treatment that discourages fowl, particularly sandhill cranes, from eating their seed. A legislative study committee in December voted 8-4 to recommend legislation that would allow a hunt of sandhill cranes while providing state funding to address crop damage.
Another $1.6 million for meat processor grants and an additional $1.2 million for dairy processors.

— State officials have announced $100 million for 55 road improvement projects focused on the state’s farming and forestry industries.

The funded projects are aimed at improving rural roads and culverts that are “critical” for transporting products in Wisconsin, according to the release from the governor’s office. Funding comes from the Agricultural Roads Improvement Program, which had an earlier $50 million round of funding last summer.

See the release.

— Forty-nine Wisconsin farmer groups are getting $1 million in grant funding for conservation efforts related to soil and water quality.

Gov. Tony Evers and DATCP yesterday announced the funding from the Producer-Led Watershed Protection Grant Program, with grants ranging from about $5,000 to $32,000. Much of the funding is going to groups already engaged in conservation projects, though several are new to the program.

See the release and a map of watershed areas getting funding.

— NFIB Wisconsin State Director Bill Smith is retiring from the position after 46 years with the organization.

The National Federation of Independent Business yesterday announced Smith’s retirement and says it will begin the process of finding his replacement.

Smith has represented Wisconsin small businesses in a number of leadership positions over his time with the NFIB, according to the release, including as co-chair of the Governor’s Task Force on Small Business Regulatory Reform. He was also previously president of the Association of Wisconsin Lobbyists.

In a statement on his retirement, Smith said it’s important that small businesses have a “respected voice” in public policy affairs and is grateful for the opportunity to fill that role.

“I am especially grateful for Wisconsin’s small business owners who trusted me with their support and honored me with their guidance and friendship throughout my career,” he said.

See the release.

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