The study is published in the latest edition of the journal Nature: Scientific Reports. Read the online version of this press release here.
BOSTON – July 29, 2025 – A new study published Sunday in Scientific Reports, a Nature Portfolio journal, analyzes the relationship between increasing building electrification and the energy burden for the remaining gas utility customers over time. Whether building electrification is market-driven or policy-driven, this analysis is intended to support energy regulators and planners in proactively considering and avoiding the worst-case scenarios. The study, “Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers,” introduces a novel framework to quantify these affordability risks, with relevance for policymakers and communities nationwide. The paper was authored by Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez, Morgan R. Edwards, and Ann F. Fink from the University of Wisconsin, and Zeyneb Magavi of HEET, a thermal energy innovation institute.
The research highlights that who chooses electrification (and when) significantly impacts the bills of those who remain in the gas system. The affordability impacts are starkly different for (1) an approach with the wealthiest electrifying first, (2) an approach with the lowest-income electrifying first, or (3) an approach that is random. Ongoing investment in natural gas infrastructure through pipeline replacement amplifies this challenge and, coupled with an uncoordinated approach to electrification, significantly increases the financial burden on the progressively fewer remaining gas customers. This analysis demonstrates that state energy regulators have a window of opportunity to mitigate these impacts through policy and proactive planning and that whether building electrification is market-driven or policy-driven, the presence of an existing gas utility indicates a need for policy interventions to ensure a managed or coordinated transition.
Key Findings from the Study:
- Potential for Rising Energy Burdens: Analyzing existing Massachusetts data and policies without further proposed policy interventions, if higher-income households electrify first, the number of energy-burdened households currently in the gas system (spending at least 6% of income on energy) could increase from 411,000 currently to peak at 540,000 households by 2040 due to rising gas system infrastructure costs per customer.
- Potential for Significant Bill Increases: With approximately 45% of households electrified, those with gas utility service that do not electrify could face a similar average increase in energy bills over the next 15 years due to rising gas infrastructure costs per customer, relative to current costs. This figure can escalate to 60% in Massachusetts and 36-105% nationally (for the top 50 utilities with leak-prone infrastructure) when gas system infrastructure investments such as pipeline replacement programs occur simultaneously with increasing building electrification.
- Disproportionate Risk for Vulnerable Communities: The study found that leak-prone natural gas infrastructure and planned pipeline replacements are currently disproportionately located in Massachusetts communities with a higher representation of low-income households and renters. These groups can therefore be seen as at greater risk of being locked into costly natural gas systems and facing increased energy burdens. Alternately, this geographic distribution could also potentially present a greater opportunity for addressing affordability risk through strategic redirection of infrastructure investment.
- National Implications: Across the U.S., for the 37 million households served by the top 50 gas utilities with leak-prone pipelines, the number of energy-burdened households could rise from 7.7 million today to 8.8 million under the combined policy of uncoordinated electrification and pipeline replacement.
“Our findings highlight the importance of coordinating the transition to building electrification, particularly during the period when existing energy systems, such as natural gas, will continue to operate alongside new electric systems like heat pumps,” said Garibay-Rodriguez, lead study author and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Wisconsin’s Climate Action Lab. “Policymakers face a difficult challenge because much of the aging and failing infrastructure, such as gas distribution pipelines, has exceeded its useful life, requiring major investments to keep it operating safely and efficiently. This challenge is particularly relevant given the ongoing energy affordability issues facing energy-burdened households.”
“Massachusetts offers a compelling case study,” notes Edwards, Assistant Professor at the University of Wisconsin and leader of the Climate Action Lab. “It has a long track record of leadership in energy policy and a wealth of policy-relevant data available to support studies like this. HEET has been an invaluable research partner in this work and a leader in compiling and publishing open data that makes studies like this one possible.”
“Our country has a long tradition of successful energy transitions. No one in my town still thinks we should be using whale oil or coal in our homes. That said, whale oil was not a regulated utility so this paper highlights a pretty novel question. What happens when an energy transition drives customers off of existing utility infrastructure? Can we maintain affordability for customers on both sides of this kind of transition?” said Magavi, the Executive Director of HEET. “The University of Wisconsin team has produced a useful framework to help us think that out ahead of time.”
The paper emphasizes that prioritizing early electrification for lower income households is helpful in mitigating immediate burdens, but does not fully address the long-term risks of a utility death spiral that could render the gas system financially unsustainable. The utility death spiral is a cycle in which declining gas demand leads to higher rates for remaining customers, driving more customers to leave the gas system. The findings suggest that an effective heating energy transition will require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that proactively manage the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure. This could involve prioritized electrification in areas with aging gas infrastructure and innovative policy solutions that address the interdependencies between gas and electricity systems.
The full paper can be found at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5
