Milwaukee’s local labor market is showing signs of “beginning to cool down,” an economist with Marquette University says.
Nicholas Jolly, an associate professor of economics at the Milwaukee university, co-authored a report released yesterday detailing economic trends for the region and state.
The Economic Scorecard for Southeastern Wisconsin shows unemployment rates for both the state and the Milwaukee area are well below the national average — 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively, compared to the national rate of 4.5% for August. But Jolly points to data showing a downward trend for jobs in the region.
“When comparing monthly employment numbers from the same month in the previous year, non-farm employment has seen year-over-year declines since April 2025, and this trend is expected to continue through April 2026,” he said in a release.
Between June 2025 and April 2026, employment in the Milwaukee metropolitan area is projected to decline by about 6,054 jobs, according to the report. It shows non-farm employment in the area is expected to hit 861,546 by April 2026, which would be a slight increase of 2,946 jobs from April 2025.
“Relative to longer-run trends from earlier in the decade, non-farm payroll employment is expected to remain flat relative to levels seen since mid-2023,” report authors wrote.
Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are projected to increase but at a slower rate, Jolly notes. Average hourly earnings in the metro area are expected to rise “modestly” from $35.62 in April 2025 to $36.06 by April 2026, the report shows.
Authors say this trend points to a slowdown in growth and a more stable labor market, noting projected wages for April 2026 are lower than the latest local data from August.
“This moderation in wage growth may be driven by a cooling labor market and easing inflationary pressures,” they wrote. “Despite the deceleration, wage gains remain positive, signaling continued labor market resilience.”
Report co-author Grace Wang, a professor of economics and director of the university’s Center for Applied Economics, notes the recent slowdown follows several years of strong growth, indicating a “period of adjustment” for the region.
“Overall economic conditions remain stable, with wages rising modestly and inflation showing signs of restraint,” Wang said. “This environment calls for a focus on long-term resilience by supporting workforce development and helping local employers adapt to changing labor and housing market conditions.”
