The state’s manufacturing workforce is expected to shrink in the coming years in line with national trends, according to the latest Department of Revenue economic forecast.
Based on the latest revisions to employment data, Wisconsin manufacturing employment fell by 0.5% in 2023, the DOR report shows. The agency expects this sector’s total employment to continue declining through 2027, following a national trend of declining manufacturing jobs.
Manufacturing has been the second-largest employment sector in the state since it was surpassed by the trade, transportation and utilities sector in 2001. But under the latest forecast, it’s expected to fall behind health and education services this year, making it the state’s third-largest employment sector.
Across all sectors, state employment grew 1.4% last year and is expected to increase by another 0.7% in 2024, the report shows.
“The last quarter of 2023 showed stronger growth than expected, suggesting that tight labor markets will persist into 2024,” report authors wrote. “The forecast still expects a period of slow growth to bring down inflation to the Fed’s desired range, but it will not materialize until late 2024 and 2025.”
Eight private employment sectors had exceeded pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, with only the leisure and hospitality services and other services sectors remaining below pre-pandemic levels, according to DOR. Still, the agency notes leisure and hospitality is only 0.7% below the previous peak.
Meanwhile, DOR predicts state nominal personal income will have grown 4.1% in 2023 and will see another 4.1% growth this year. When adjusted for inflation, real personal income growth is expected to have been flat in 2023 and to rise 2% this year “as inflation moderates.”
See the full report.
