MON AM News: Stark Company Realtors CEO weighs in on housing market trends; Voters approve record $3.4 billion in school referendums

November 11, 2024

— The head of Madison-based Stark Company Realtors says recent trends suggest the upward pressure on home prices “seems to be easing” despite ongoing inventory shortages.

In a recent newsletter focused on south- central Wisconsin’s real estate market in the third quarter, Stark Company Realtors CEO David Stark noted homes have been going for “slightly more” than the list price since the pandemic. These “overbids” tend to ramp up in the spring and summer, he wrote.

But this year, he says the average overbid “fell recently by more than it had in the past three years,” with final sale prices averaging slightly lower than the list price in August and “just over” the list price in September. He points to this trend, along with somewhat higher inventory levels, in arguing rising prices may be close to leveling off.

“There are more instances of properties sitting for longer on the market if they’re not properly priced,” Stark wrote. “While it always varies from property to property, it does appear that prices are starting to reach the limit the market can bear, leading to hope that increases may moderate next year.”

Still, he cautions this is “a possibility, not a prediction,” as housing levels on the market are around half what they were five years earlier. Plus, with the greater Madison area projected to continue gaining population in the coming years, demand is expected to remain strong regardless of mortgage rate changes or other factors, he wrote.

He attributes current low inventory levels and home price growth to mortgage rates being too low for too long, noting inventory levels have begun to recover in the more “normal” mortgage rate range around 6%.

Around the start of October, the peak period for housing inventory, Dane County had about 950 properties on the market, exceeding peaks of around 700 homes for each of the previous three years.

“We currently sit at just under 2 months of inventory in Dane County, and about 2.5 in Sauk/Columbia, after spending the last three years with half that much,” Stark wrote. “For comparison’s sake, we peaked at about 2.3 months in Dane County in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, and about 3.5 months in Sauk/Columbia. Frankly, even that felt low at the time.”

At the start of the year, Dane County had just about 500 homes on the market, and Stark hopes that will be around 700 homes at the start of 2025 before increasing from there. Even if the county sees up to 1,200 homes at the peak period of next year, he expects prices will continue to increase.

“How much depends on where inventories land, and how low mortgage rates go,” he wrote. “The long term average for price increases in Dane County is between 4% and 5% per year. If we can keep prices somewhere in that range next year, we’ll consider that another victory.”

See the newsletter.

— Wisconsin voters last week approved a record $3.4 billion of the $4.3 billion school districts requested from voters to help pay for renovations, construction, maintenance and operational costs, among other expenses.

That’s the highest total approved in a single election since at least 2000, according to referendum data compiled by the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

The $4.3 billion ask was more than double the previous record for a single election since 2000 — topping the $2 billion districts requested in November 2022. That year, voters approved $1.7 billion, 85% of the $2 billion total, as they signed off on 64 of 81 referendums.

Voters approved 108 of the 138 school district referendums, about 78%. The $3.4 billion total includes recurring and non-recurring referendums, and the money can be spread out over a number of years.

The highest total amount approved for a single district was $607 million for the Madison Metropolitan School District across two referendums.

Seventy-two percent voted in favor of the $507 million on the ballot for school renovations, construction of new school buildings and/or adding on to existing buildings. Sixty-nine percent voted to approve the $100 million to cover operational and maintenance expenses, including educational programming and employee compensation and benefits.

Madison School Board President Nichelle Nichols and Superintendent Joe Gothard in a statement on the results said “we still have much work ahead” and noted the district is still operating with a structural deficit.

“Our revenues are not keeping up with our costs,” they said. “We, along with other public school districts throughout the state, continue to be grossly underfunded by the state. Our team will come together and engage with the community to determine how to move forward and plan for the future.”

See the full story at WisPolitics.

— UW Health today will start requiring masks in “high-risk” locations starting Monday as this year’s respiratory virus season gets underway.

Between Nov. 11 and mid-March, the health system will require all staff, patients and visitors to wear masks during patient interactions in a number of settings. These include breast centers, cancer clinics, chemotherapy clinics, dialysis areas, emergency departments, infusion centers, transplant clinics, urgent care and others.

At the same time, masks are being “strongly recommended” in other patient care locations and clinics, as providers and others have already been wearing masks in patient rooms, procedure rooms and inpatient waiting rooms. Masks will remain optional in cafeterias, lobbies, elevators and administrative areas.

Dr. Jeff Pothof, chief quality officer and emergency medicine physician for UW Health, notes influenza, RSV, COVID-19 and other viruses tend to spread more easily at this time of year. In an interview Friday, he said he believes the new policy will be “really effective” at preventing the transmission of viruses within the hospital, where many patients have compromised immune systems.

“If there’s anything good that came out of the pandemic, it was a lot of research that looked at if both people in a prolonged interaction are wearing a mask, can we reduce the risk of transmission of these respiratory diseases, whether that be COVID-19, or influenza or RSV?” he said. “And as sure as the sun rises in the east, we know that two people wearing masks significantly reduces the chance that if one of them has a respiratory disease, that the other one does not get it.”

While this isn’t the first year that UW Health has enacted a masking policy during flu season, it is the first time the health care has established a set range of dates, according to Pothof. In the past, the health system monitored indicators of disease among its employees or the local community and tried to time its policy with higher activity. The new approach is meant to reduce confusion among patients and staff and limit disease spread — including among hospital employees.

He noted some patients have to wait months for an appointment with their doctor, and care providers falling ill can cause further delays. Pothof said the health system aims to keep “our staff healthy so that we can keep providing care” and avoid appointment cancellations.

Meanwhile, the state Department of Health Services on Friday published its latest respiratory virus surveillance report, covering the week ending Nov. 2. It shows influenza-like activity has reached “moderate” levels across much of south central and southwestern Wisconsin, while the rest of the state is below baseline for this activity.

Between Sept. 1 and Nov. 2, the state has had 27 influenza-associated hospitalizations, with 16 of those occurring in patients aged 65 and older. At the same point in previous flu seasons, the total hospitalization figure was 5 in 2020-2021, 8 in 2021-2022, 99 in 2022-2023, and 34 in 2023-2024.

See the release.

For more of the most relevant health care news, reports on groundbreaking research in Wisconsin, links to top stories and more, sign up today for the free daily Health Care Report from WisPolitics and WisBusiness.com.

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— Kathy Still, former Department of Veterans Affairs assistant deputy secretary, has founded Viking Legal Services and Consulting LLC.

In a LinkedIn post, she said the new consulting business wil “help individuals and businesses make informed decisions and navigate the ever-working regulatory environment.”

— The Wisconsin Technology Council’s Early Stage Symposium is being held Wednesday and Thursday in Madison.

Anchored by the theme “piecing together success through investment,” the event features panel discussions on the state’s innovation hubs, funding startups, investor perspectives, AP applications and more.

It will also have an exhibit hall showcasing dozens of Wisconsin companies, keynote speakers and presentations from early-stage business founders.

Later this month, the Tech Council will host a Nov. 26 panel discussion in Madison focused on higher education in the state, including private colleges and technical campuses.

“Different elements in Wisconsin’s higher ed structure help support the economy in many ways, from workforce training to research to industry partnerships.” Tech Council President Tom Still said in a statement.

See Early Stage Symposium details here and see more on the higher ed discussion here.

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TOPICS

CONSTRUCTION

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EDUCATION

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– Nate Zimdars takes new role at Wisconsin Farm Bureau

– ‘Schooly McSchoolface’ axed: Madison panel narrows new school names

ENTERTAINMENT & THE ARTS

– Chamber orchestra ignites Masterworks series with ‘Fialkowska on Fire’