WISCONSIN – Wisconsin’s 75 or older population is about to explode, rising nearly 75% between 2020 and 2040. Since this population is the prime consumer of nursing home and assisted living facilities, this surge could significantly strain the elder care industry. A new report from Forward Analytics, “On The Brink: Probing the Coming Senior Care Challenges,” explores changes in these services since 2000 and how the landscape might look over the next decade or more.
During 2000-2020, the total number of beds in Wisconsin nursing homes and assisted living facilities increased at about the same rate as the 75 or older population. If that continues, given the surge in the senior population, Wisconsin would need to add about 33,000 beds by 2030 to accommodate the increased population. During the following decade, another 26,500 would need to be added. In 2023, the state had about 80,000 total beds.
“Predicting what type facilities will be needed is more difficult to project,” said Kevin Dospoy, Deputy Director of Forward Analytics. “Since 2000, the number of nursing home beds has declined while beds in assisted living facilities have increased. However, with the state adding about 300,000 people to the 75-or-older cohort by 2040, the decline in nursing home beds will likely be reversed at some point.” The demand for assisted living beds will likely continue to grow.
According to the study, the state will also face challenges staffing the needed facilities. If current staffing ratios remain unchanged, these facilities would need an additional 9,900 registered nurses, CNAs, and home health/personal care aides. That figure represents 75% of the projected increase in those occupations during 2022-2030. This worker shortage is likely to continue after 2030.
