Report: Good News Is That “Plan B” for IA, IN, IL, KY, MI, MN, MO, ND, NE, OH, SD, WI and WV Appears Positive; Region Would Get Over a Third of Power From Wind
CHICAGO, IL. – The U.S region consisting of Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia would fare among the best of all the major sections of the U.S. under a transition to a clean-energy electricity future, according to an analysis released today by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., for the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute (CSI) think tank.
The “Greater Midwest” region examined by Synapse covers three linked sub-regions, as grouped by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report defines the greater Midwest region as consisting of Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
The Synapse/CSI report outlines a transition to healthier, safer power industry nationwide and provides details on what this transition might look like in the Greater Midwest and the rest of the U.S. The benefits of this transition for the Midwest include significantly reduced air pollution from the retirement of all coal-fired generation and the potential to become a global leader in clean electricity technologies, especially wind power, which would account for more than a third of regional electricity generation.
Following up on a May 2010 report by Synapse for CSI, the new Synapse analysis outlines an approach for the Greater Midwest under which: “… a major expansion of energy efficiency programs slows the growth in electricity use, and by 2021 these programs begin reducing electricity use each year … [E]nergy savings at this level are currently being achieved by a number of utilities, and there is no reason why all Midwestern companies cannot achieve these levels within a decade. Second … all coal-fired generation is phased out in the Transition Scenario by 2050, nuclear generation remains stable, and the region aggressively develops its renewable resources. In addition, these Midwestern resources are used primarily in the Midwest: annual electricity exports fall from over 80 terra watt hours (TWh) in 2010 to about 14 TWh in 2050. “
Grant Smith, energy advisor to the Civil Society Institute, said: “The Midwest is at a crossroads today. While the electric power industry remains obsessed with such dirty and needlessly expensive 19th and 20th century ‘business as usual’ solutions as coal-fired and nuclear power, there is an opportunity today to make the transition without multi-billion dollar gambles on unproven carbon capture and sequestration technology and risky nuclear loan-guarantee bailouts. In the wake of the failed Federal action on climate legislation, leadership from the states is even more important. The Synapse Energy Economics report shows that a clean energy future is within our grasp. It will take political will and leadership from outside Washington.”
Geoff Keith, researcher and associate, Synapse Energy Economics Inc., said: “Our analysis shows that the Midwest could reduce air pollution and other environmental impacts dramatically, take huge strides toward mitigating climate change and become a global leader in clean energy production. And with its massive wind resource and skilled workforce, the region would be an attractive location for manufacturers of wind turbines and related components – one of the fastest growing industries in the U.S.”
Key aspects of the report’s “Transition Scenario” for Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin and West Virginia include the following:
* All coal-fired capacity is retired – 137,000 (MW) of coal.
* Over 80,000 MWs of wind capacity are added, generating 330 TWh in 2050, or 36 percent of total regional generation.
* Cleaner natural gas-fired generation increases by 112 TWh (nearly 140 percent). This is greater than the increase expected under the status quo (74 percent). However in the Transition Scenario, much of this new gas-fired generation takes place at combined heat and power (CHP) facilities, and thus it reduces fuel use in other sectors.
* Generation from biomass increases by 129 TWh (16 percent). This is less aggressive use of biomass than under BAU, in which biomass generation grows by 21 percent.
The path outlined in the Synapse/CSI analysis report also would mean cleaner air in the Midwest and dramatically reduced with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the electric sector – down by more than 90 percent, compared to a 29 percent increase for the region under status quo trends. Similarly, toxic mercury emissions would fall 100 percent, compared to a much higher level under the status quo. Water consumption by power plants also would fall considerably.
NATIONAL REPORT FINDINGS
A major May 2010 Synapse report for the Civil Society Institute developed a scenario for 2010- 2050 that would provide the following benefits:
* Aggressive investments in more efficient technologies in every sector could reduce electricity use by 15 percent from today’s requirements, or over 40 percent from a “business as usual” scenario. Utilities in several states are already achieving savings at this level.
* The U.S. could feasibly retire the entire fleet of coal-fired plants and build no new coal-fired generation, rather than burning more coal. Tens of billions could be saved in avoided pollution control costs at the coal-fired plants retired between 2010 and 2020. At the same time, we could retire 28 percent of the nation’s nuclear capacity.
* Electric sector emissions of carbon dioxide would fall by roughly 82 percent relative to predicted 2010 levels. Emissions of SO2, NOx, and mercury fall in the BAU Case, as new emission controls are installed at coal-fired plants, but they fall much more in the Transition Scenario. Emissions of NOx fall by 60 percent over the study period, and emissions of SO2 fall by 97 percent. Electric sector mercury emissions are virtually eliminated.
* Renewable energy, including wind, solar, geothermal and biomass, would increase throughout the nation, eventually providing half of the nation’s electricity requirements. Natural gas use in the electric sector would grow more slowly than under business as usual, leaving more gas for clean cars and other uses.
* There would be modest near-term costs of the scenario, but over the long term it would cost less than a business as usual energy future. The scenario would cost an estimated $10 billion per year more than the BAU in 2020, but it would save $5 billion annually by 2040 and $13 billion annually by 2050. These are direct costs only; they do not include savings resulting from reduced CO2 emissions or public health costs. (A recent National Academies study estimated the annual health impacts of power generation in the U.S. at $62 billion in 2005.) For a typical residential consumer, purchasing about 900 kWh per month, the 2020 cost increase would amount to about $2.20 per month. By 2040, the same customer would be saving about $1.50 per month and by 2050, saving nearly $4.00 per month.
The full text of the Civil Society Institute reports prepared by Synapse Energy Economics are available online at http:///www.CivilSocietyInstitute.org.
ABOUT THE GROUPS
Based in Newton, MA., the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute (http://www.CivilSocietyInstitute.org) is a think tank that serves as a catalyst for change by creating problem-solving interactions among people, and between communities, government and business that can help to improve society. Since 2003, CSI has conducted more than 25 major national and state-level surveys and reports on energy and auto issues, including vehicle fuel-efficiency standards, consumer demand for hybrids/other highly-fuel efficient vehicles, global warming and renewable energy. In addition to being a co-convener of TheCLEAN.org (http://www.TheClean.org), the Civil Society Institute also is the parent organization of 40MPG.org (http://www.40MPG.org) and the Hybrid Owners of America (http://www.HybridOwnersofAmerica.org).
Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. (http://www.synapse-energy.com/) provides research, testimony, reports and regulatory support on energy, economic, and environmental topics. Synapse has a professional staff of 22 with more than 300 years of combined experience in the electricity and natural gas industries. Synapse assesses the implications of electricity and natural gas industry planning, regulation and restructuring. Their work covers various interrelated issues such as transmission planning, service reliability, siting, fuel diversity, resource planning, financial and economic risks, renewable energy potential and renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, electricity modeling, portfolio management, customer service and more. Synapse works for a wide range of clients throughout the United States, including attorneys general, offices of consumer advocates, public utility commissions, a variety of environmental groups, foundations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, Department of Justice, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, and others.
CONTACT: Alex Grodin, (571) 340-0085 and agrodincsi@gmail.com.
