John McCain campaigns in Iowa — but why?
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-ticket5-2008oct05,0,1839660.story
puzzled by a John McCain itinerary that found him spending a good part of Monday and much of Tuesday in that locale.
We can only assume that he and his political advisors know something that the polls of that state’s voters aren’t detecting. They’d better, because with one exception, several recent surveys in Iowa have shown Barack Obama solidly ahead in the fight for its seven electoral votes.
If McCain and his camp don’t have good reason to dispute these findings, it’s hard not to view the roughly 24 hours he spent in Des Moines and vicinity last week as a waste of time at this point in the White House race.
Not only does winning Iowa loom as a difficult challenge for the Republican ticket, it’s hardly key to victory.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/john-mccain-sti.html
John McCain’s seemingly odd obsession with Iowa remains unabated. But concerned Republicans might take heart from learning the McCain campaign insists it knows what it’s doing.
Longtime Democratic strategist Matt Paul called McCain’s campaign strategy “bizarre,” saying it didn’t make sense and noting that McCain has now bought TV ads in the expensive Davenport market. All this after McCain chose not to compete in the Iowa caucuses in January. The campaign had no TV ads, just a handful of mail pieces and just 12 paid staffers here at the time. “A couple of visits don’t make up for his complete lack of organization in the state,” Paul said.
POLITICAL STOCK REPORT
RISING
Iowa Democrats: Continued their advantage in voter registration and early voting. As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats were outpacing Republicans 107,829 to 66,493 in the number of absentee ballots cast. Their advantage in voter registration also grew – there were 727,263 registered Democrats and 621,381 registered Republicans, a difference of 105,882.
Divided We Fail: The national initiative calling for bipartisan action on health and financial security issues picked up steam this week when Iowa’s two senators and all five congressmen endorsed the initiative. Iowa is now one of 18 states to have its entire congressional delegation on board. Nearly 1 million Americans have signed on, including more than 25,000 Iowans. U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and U.S. Reps. Leonard Boswell, Steve King and Dave Loebsack endorsed the initiative this week while AARP Iowa was on a 20-stop “break the gridlock” voter van tour across the state.
Iowa homeowners: More than 1,100 Iowans will be offered mortgage loan modifications from Countrywide Financial Corp. to help them avoid foreclosure and loss of their homes, under a settlement reached with Iowa and other states. The settlement will bring an estimated $11 million in relief to Iowa borrowers.
Foster kids: Federal legislation advocated by families and foster kids from Des Moines, Waverly, Iowa City, Ankeny and Cedar Rapids was signed into law by President Bush this week. The law provides additional federal incentives for states to move children from foster care to adoptive homes. It makes it easier for foster children to be adopted by their own relatives and to stay in their own home communities. It makes all children with special needs eligible for federal adoption assistance, not just those from very low-income families. It also establishes new opportunities to help kids who age out of the foster care system at 18 by helping them pursue education or vocational training.
Business and property taxpayers: Iowa House Republicans and Democrats are both talking about reducing taxes. Republicans this week called for freezing Iowa property taxes, so that annual increases in schools’ per-pupil spending would not fall on the backs of property-tax payers. Instead, the state general fund would cover the increases, at a cost of about $50 million. Democrats said they agree something needs to be done to alleviate the heavy tax burden on businesses, although they’re not sure a property-tax freeze is the way to go about it.
MIXED
Iowa workers: The U.S. Department of Labor announced that the United States lost 159,000 jobs in September – the ninth straight month of job loss and the biggest one-month drop since March 2003. But Iowa’s picture is better than the rest of the nation, analysts said. Iowa’s unemployment rate increased to 4.6 percent in August, the highest since February 2005. But Iowa’s rate is 12th lowest in the nation, along with Idaho, New Mexico and Virginia.
FALLING
Pork: Iowa may be one of the nation’s leading pork producers, but “pork” in a political sense has been getting a bad name lately. House Republican leader Christopher Rants this week called for an end to pork-barrel spending in the 2009 legislative session. When asked to elaborate, Republican staff provided a list of 12 projects that cost about $2 million — an Amtrak train depot, health club dues, an antique organ in Clermont, concrete flower pots in downtown Des Moines — that were approved over the last three years.
Bailout bill: The $700 bailout bill of Wall Street continued to get bad press this week, as members of Congress returned home to talk to their constituents. Republican U.S. Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham maintained their opposition to the bill. “I’m still trying to figure out who’s for it,” House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City, said on a radio show.
Candidates with records: Iowa legislative candidates who have traffic violations, alcohol-related offenses, small-claims cases, financial woes, child-support disputes and messy divorces had their dirty laundry aired out this week when Democratic leaders turned over a binder full of court records to newspaper reporters. Records showed that Democratic Rep. Mark Davitt of Indianola had 16 moving violations in the past 12 years. Republican House candidate Darren White of Dubuque has a long record connected to alcoholism and driving violations. And Republican candidates Jonathan Van Roekel of Clinton and Michael Littzen of Fort Dodge have convictions for operating a motor vehicle while intoxicated.
GOVERNOR: MID-YEAR BUDGET CUTS POSSIBLE AMID FLAT REVENUE GROWTH
Gov. Chet Culver today said that mid-year budget cuts are possible, amid economic uncertainty and new projections by the Revenue Estimating Conference that state government will receive an estimated $39.4 million less this budget year and will probably see close to no revenue growth next year.
“Because we were prudent with our finances, revenue reductions can be absorbed in our year-end budget balance. But it’s also important that we look ahead and be prepared for economic challenges that may continue into the future,” Culver said. “That is why I have directed my administration’s departments to submit status quo budgets for the 2010 fiscal year. …I will also continue to closely monitor our revenue estimates and, if the outlook changes, will not rule out the possibility of having to make mid-year budget cuts.”
Economic uncertainty led the REC today to projected revenue growth at only one-tenth of 1 percent for fiscal year 2010, which will make it difficult for Culver and state lawmakers to establish next year’s budget. The governor and Legislature are required to use the REC estimates in preparing the budget. There is as much as $500 million in spending increases already promised next year for preschool, K-12 schools, Medicaid and other areas.
“I just think there’s so much uncertainty right now in the markets,” said Holly Lyons, director of the Legislative Service Agency’s fiscal services division. “I’m pretty nervous. These are unprecedented times. I’ve never seen this in my lifetime.”
States such as California, Nevada, Michigan, Illinois and Texas are among 31 states in a fiscal crisis because their revenues aren’t living up to expenditures. Iowa, whose economic picture has always lagged 6 to 9 months behind the nation, is fortunate not to be in that situation. However, the decline appears to have started impacting Iowa a few weeks or months ago, said David Underwood, the retired CFO and treasurer of AADG, Inc. in Mason City.
“There’s no question that the Iowa economy is slowing down. We aren’t as slow yet as the national economy, but we’re moving downward,” said Charles Krogmeier, director of the Iowa Department of Management. “What’s been holding us up, helping us stay healthy, primarily exports … that’s softening, and the ag economy. Every day, corn and bean prices, ag prices, are down from what the highs were this summer.”
House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque, quickly provided comments of reassurance, despite today’s downward revenue projections. Aside from built-in spending increases, state lawmakers must also address the continuing needs of victims of this year’s floods and tornadoes when they reconvene in January.
“Despite uncertainty in the national economy, Iowa’s economy continues to be on solid ground due to Democrats’ fiscal responsibility and our focus on renewable energy,” said House Speaker Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque. “Our budget remains balanced and we have a record $620 million in reserves. Our fiscal integrity has even be noted by Standard & Poor’s, which upgraded Iowa’s bond rating to AAA last month.”
But House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City, criticized Democrats for putting the state in this situation through increased spending.
“The irresponsible and bloated budget passed by Democrats mixed with the current economic crisis the country is in, is what has led to the start of economic downturn in Iowa,” Rants said. “Looking at the REC estimate is like looking at any stock portfolio, it has plummeted. This problem is not going to be solved by more of the same, rhetoric and falsehoods. It’s going to take tough leadership, tightening of the state’s fiscal belt and accountable government, which is what the House Republicans are offering to Iowans.”
MCCAIN RETURNS TO IOWA
Word that Republican presidential candidate John McCain will be coming to Davenport this Saturday left political spectators – even those within his own party — puzzled about why McCain continues to view Iowa as a battleground state, despite multiple polls that have shown he is trailing Democrat Barack Obama in double digits.
“They see something I clearly don’t see,” said veteran GOP strategist Eric Woolson, president of The Concept Works.
McCain has already visited Iowa twice since accepting his party’s nomination for president at the Republican National Convention last month. He and running mate Sarah Palin were in Cedar Rapids on Sept. 18. He returned to Des Moines for a small-business roundtable attended by about 300 business people on Sept. 29 and 30. And Palin held a rally in Omaha, Neb. last Sunday – an easy trek for residents of Council Bluffs and western Iowa.
“Everything that I’ve seen shows the McCain campaign is fully committed to the state,” said Caleb Hunter, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. “I don’t have access to internal data, but clearly there is something that is telling them that Iowa remains competitive.”
This Saturday, McCain will hold a rally 10:30 a.m. at The River Center in Davenport. The McCain campaign isn’t closing up shop like it did in Michigan, where last week McCain canceled a visit, stopped TV ads, ended campaign mailings and sent most of his staff to more competitive states such as Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Instead, the campaign is expanding its operations here.
“It’s going to be a close election in Iowa and Senator McCain is committed to keeping Iowa a red state – this visit is yet another indication of that,” McCain spokeswoman Wendy Riemann said. “The senator’s visit falls on the heels of the McCain campaign opening an additional eight offices throughout Iowa and adding extra resources to the state to ensure a November victory.”
McCain now has 16 campaign offices in Urbandale, Ames, Marshalltown, Waterloo, Marion, Coralville, Davenport, Indianola, Ottumwa, Newton, Mt. Pleasant, Dubuque, Clear Lake, Sioux City, Sioux Center and Council Bluffs. In comparison, Obama has 43 campaign offices across the state. The McCain campaign continues to buy TV ads in Des Moines, although it spent less here in the last three weeks than the Obama campaign.
Republicans point out that the state has been decided by less than 1 percent of the vote. In 2004, President Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry by 10,059 votes, while Democrat Al Gore narrowly won Iowa in the 2000 presidential election by 4,144 votes over Bush. The winner took all seven of Iowa’s electoral votes.
But a poll Sept. 18-21 by Marist Institute showed Obama over McCain, 51 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters. A Lee Enterprises poll showed Obama ahead 53 percent to 39 percent. A SurveyUSA poll showed Obama over McCain 54 percent to 43 percent, while the Iowa Poll showed Obama over McCain, 52 to 40 percent.
The only poll that showed otherwise was a Big Ten Battleground Poll released Sept. 18 by the University of Wisconsin, which showed the two candidates tied in Iowa. A key difference: That poll surveyed registered voters, rather than likely voters.
“No one has talked to me why we’re still in the running,” Stewart Iverson, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, said of the McCain campaign’s continued interest in Iowa. “The internal polling must show them within the margin of error or fairly close that they still can win.”
Former McCain adviser Mike Murphy predicted last week that Obama is going to win Iowa, and questioned why McCain recently took the time to attend a newspaper editorial board meeting in Des Moines. “Why put McCain in the wrong state, at the wrong place?” Murphy asked. “No surprise the result is the wrong message and the wrong tone.”
The answer must be that the McCain sees the race tighter than media polls indicate. But campaign officials remain mum about their strategy. Riemann did not answer questions about what internal polls showed or why Iowa continued to be a destination place for McCain.
“Let me be clear, Iowa is absolutely a battleground that we are committed to winning,” Riemann said. “We have enough resources here, we have a strong grassroots effort in place and John McCain is committed to being in Iowa and keeping it a red state. We’re focused on the things that matter.”
See more on polls in PollWatch:
http://www.iowapolitics.com/index.iml?Content=190
See Mike Murphy’s blog: http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/des_moines_register.html
View a list of campaign offices
McCain: http://iowa.johnmccain.com/content/sitecontentmain.aspx?guid=501b1e60-df57-470c-ac62-84ba0c10d10c
Obama: http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/iaoffices
OBAMA OUTSPENDS MCCAIN IN TV AD BUYS
Democrat Barack Obama outspent Republican John McCain on television advertisements in the Des Moines area by nearly $49,000 in the last three weeks.
A review of campaign spending in the public files of the four network affiliates based in Des Moines – KCCI, WHO, WOI and KDSM – found that from September 22 to October 12, Barack Obama and the DNC spent a total of $310,157.90, while John McCain and the RNC spent $261, 210.45.
The findings show that neither candidate appears ready to pull-out – or declare victory – in a tightly contested Iowa race. McCain recently ended his campaign in Michigan.
A previous IowaPolitics.com review determined that John McCain and the RNC outspent Barack Obama and the DNC by a little over $52,000 from July 19 to September 22. McCain and the RNC spent a total of $448,105.25 in that period, while Obama and the DNC spent $395,808.50.
MUD SLINGS IN IOWA HOUSE RACES
Mud has been slinging in both directions in the race for control of the Iowa House this year.
Republicans have used the Iowa Leadership Council, the political 527 organization, to post dossiers on the Internet about Democratic legislative candidates’ voting records. Each candidate has his or her on Web site, labeled www.truthaboutXXXX.com There’s one about state Reps. Paul Shomshor, Elesha Gayman, Eric Palmer – they’re all there.
“It doesn’t tell you that candidate X is a bad guy or you should vote against them,” said House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City. “Here’s their voting record. If you look at the site, you’ll find that it’s just statements of fact. There’s no element of opinion.”
But Democrats view those Web sites, in addition to a photo taken by Republicans in the House chamber incorrectly alleging that a Democratic lawmaker had taken a bribe, as negative attacks by Republicans. In response, members of the Iowa Democratic Party recently compiled some court records showing criminal records of some Republican candidates.
“I abhor negative campaigning,” said House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Des Moines Democrat. But he added: “The party is not going to be swift-boated again. We’re going to fight back.”
As for the actual findings of the criminal background checks, McCarthy said: “Nobody cares about that kind of stuff on either side of the aisle.” He said legislative candidates are human beings and have had driving offenses and underage smoking charges, just like the general public.
Rants this week dismissed the whole thing as “yesterday’s news,” saying he no longer wanted to talk about it. As for the conservative Iowa Leadership Council, he said that 527 group was formed four years ago in response to former Gov. Tom Vilsack’s Heartland PAC, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and Moveon.org.
“That’s a new part of campaigning these days,” Rants said.
Democrats currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Iowa House – a difference of just six. But due to retirements and lawmakers hoping to make the move to the Senate, the party split is really 49-38 among incumbents seeking re-election.
Rants would not say this week what their internal polls are showing. Democrats started their tracking polls this week to give them a better feel of where they stand on each legislative race. They’ll start receiving results today, and every 1 ½ to 2 days after that. In about two weeks, they’ll be able to predict where control of the Legislature will be next year.
“If you do your footwork too early, it will be meaningless,” McCarthy said, noting how many legislative races are just now heating up with mailings and TV ad buys, four weeks before the election.
Iowa Leadership Council: http://iowaleadershipcouncil.com/WhyWeExist.aspx
Sample Web site from Iowa Leadership Council: www.truthaboutpaulshomshor.com/
PEOPLE IN THE NEWS
To be included in this new feature tracking recent job changes and other people in the news, please write campbell@iowapolitics.com
GRETA JOHNSON of LeMars, a junior at Iowa State University majoring in political science, is the new student member of the Iowa Board of Regents. Her term begins immediately and is subject to confirmation by the Iowa Senate. Johnson was previously a page in the Iowa Legislature, has served leadership roles at ISU and has worked as an intern in the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, where she organized a caucus education workshop.
RODNEY AND LEANN SEBERT of Belmond are the winners of the October “Gary Wergin Good Farm Neighbor Award,” which recognizes Iowa livestock farmers who care for their farms and neighbors. The Seberts are the third generation to operate their family farm near Lake Cornelia. They have a cattle and hay baling operation. Neighbor David Boelman nominated them for the award, saying, “Rodney and Leann are great people to have for neighbors. They’re very involved in the community and always welcome our family and others to their farm for learning opportunities.” Iowa Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Karey Claghorn will present the award Monday at the Seberts’ Wright County farm in Clarion. WHO radio’s “Big Show” will broadcast live from the Sebert farm in Clarion at 11:30 a.m. Monday.
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